Five State election results in the middle of second wave Pandemic have created ripple effect in political circles. The most interesting of all the results is Bengal. Never before, the Bengal election campaign from the beginning was hectic and brutal. The exit polls predicted a tough fight between ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC)and BJP. At one time, the entire India thought BJP could dent the TMC fort. However, the results are stunning and quite interesting. Let’s look into the BJP’s stake from results and decode the prospects of BJP and as well the impact in coming months.
As per latest trends, BJP is leading/won 78 seats in Bengal legislative assembly and have emerged as a principal opposition party for the first time in the history of Bengal decimating Communist party and Congress Party. From 3 seats with an 8% vote share in 2016 to 75 seats in 2021 in a left dominated state is remarkable although its aim was to govern the state didn’t happen . In 2019, BJP gained 40% of vote bank in Bengal and emerged as a dominant political force in the most liberal state since independence. If we look at BJP’s vote share as per latest results, it lost a 3% vote share as compared to 2019 Lok Sabha Elections and settled down to 39%. Interestingly, this 3% vote share was grabbed by Trinamool Congress and gained the vote share from 44% to 47%.
The interesting aspect to note here is this vote share that BJP have gained from 2016 elections, was once hold by Communist party and Congress party. Both parties have bagged a big fat Zero in this state elections. Although BJP have lost 3% vote share from 2019 Lok Sabha, the shrink was not big enough to dent its prospects for 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Now, the Bengal results will have a national impact as Mamata Didi have asserted her position winning third time as Chief Minister of State. Her fiercely fought Vidhan Sabha elections in 2021 will make her to pursue a more dominant role in national politics. However, there are more If and But’s , she will have to face.
Mamata Didi is one street fighter who have no background in political arena and a self-made woman who rise to the position as a fire brand in her early career in congress party. Her aim was to dethrone the communist government but her role was mainly limited to Bengal so far. Even if she plays a dominant role in next two years in national politics, she also has to hold Bengal for 2024. At this time, BJP firmly maintained the vote share from 2019 election. It could easily get around 15 parliament seats if elections held today based on 2021 election results. BJP’s gain in Bengal is expected and it emerged as a principal opposition party first time evicting Communist party from that position. BJP can get more than 20 parliament seats in 2024 based on the Mamata’s governance. She is known to be a Muslim appeaser and even Calcutta High Court in the past had to intervene with her heavy dose of Muslim appeasement. After all, the politics is all about the perception and a narrative that can be highlighted during elections.
BJP’s victory in Assam has once again asserted the role of political dominance in the Northeast and that has brought some important observations. Assam is a congress party bastion and during election campaign, they roped in Chhattisgarh Chief Minister to campaign there for over a month apart from star campaigners like dynasty princess Priyanka Gandhi extensively toured the state to regain the bastion. However, Congress party’s strategy couldn’t work specially with Tea Garden workers and a narrative of Anti CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) which Central Government passed in Parliament. This could be a referendum for the ruling BJP at the center regarding the Citizenship Amendment Act. The BJP’s strength and strategy worked and surged ahead against congress party despite having grand alliance and seat sharing with AIUDF a hard-core Muslim communal party. In fact, Congress party claims to be secular party but its alliance with hard core Muslim communal party is one example of how the party is stooping low. This election has prepared a ground to implement the Assam accord which BJP have promised in its manifesto.
Not but least, the BJP have another reason to cheer and its Puducherry Vidhan Sabha result. Although this state is a Union Territory, it has a statehood with a Chief Minister and cabinet ministers. Interestingly, this State had Lieutenant Governor Kiran Bedi (former IPS officer) who was on chair until January 2021 have made a remarkable presence in the state. BJP strategy worked by having her as Lieutenant Governor. She reinforced her as a dominant role and as a constitutional head of the state and her political effort highlighting Congress chief minister in a negative shade was succeeded. BJP has now another state in its kitty in the south apart from holding the Karnataka. As everyone thought, it will be a rout of BJP in Karnataka considering the white wash of BJP in recent urban local body polls but it regained the Lok Sabha seat of Belagavi (Belgaum) and put a lid about the speculation of congress party prospects in Karnataka.
At this time, BJP as a party will continue the Ashwamedha Yagna to capture state after state and there is no second thought of it but it will have to weigh in the sensitivities and COVID priorities. There is a wide spread voice that is prevalent about COVID mismanagement by Modi Government. Prime Minister Modi must show his mettle to overcome the COVID resurgence and put it under control. The priority for PM Modi is to deliver the best through vaccine inoculation, Oxygen shortages in Delhi at the earliest. He must work towards gaining the trust from people in order to perform the Ashwamedha Yagna for next year Uttar Pradesh, Goa elections.