Americans are going to 2020 Presidential Election on Nov 3, 2020. It is considered a historical election. Truly so. It is a choice between the political promises of a career politician who has been in politics for 47 years and the performance of a businessman turned politician who has been in politics for 4 years.
What concerns most of the middle-class Americans? Jobs. Jobs, Jobs!
The Natural Rate of Unemployment in USA has been 5%- 5.5%. The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. In simple words, the natural rate of unemployment signifies the rate of unemployment with which the economy is considered in the state of full employment because a certain percent of working-age Americans would not like to take up employment for whatever reason.
Let’s take a look at select data points of the rate of unemployment in USA.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; fred.stlouisfed.org
This above data highlight as follows:
- President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden brought down the rate of unemployment in U.S. Economy from 10% to 5% in 8 years.
- President Trump and Vice President Pence brought down the rate of unemployment in U.S. economy from 5% to 4% in 3 years.
- You know well 1% reduction from 5% is much more challenging than 10% to 9%.
- Needless to say, the dipping rate below the natural rate of unemployment is a HISTORICAL FACT.
- The Great Recession of 2007-09 was called by some economist Black Swan event. Black Swan is a completely unexpected event.
- If you read the research published by Alan Taylor in 2012, it may not be correct to call the Great Recession of 2007-09, a Black Swan event.
- But 2020 Coronavirus is certainly a Black Swan event.
- The rate of unemployment had suddenly jumped in April 2020 to 14.7%. Now read 7.9% of September 2020 vis-à-vis 14.7% of April 2020; cutting to half in 6 months during a Black Swan event.
- It is certainly a historic election.
- PLEASE GO OUT & VOTE.